Why Sun should buy Access and ensure JavaFX wins

AFTER NEWS surfaced about Sun Microsystems and Samsung cooperating on a Java Phone, I thought to myself: Java-only would not be good enough.

Here's why an ALP Linux + JavaFX combo offering from Sun would be a killer.

One alternative of what Sun could do, if it overcame its anti-Linux faction of Solaris and pure-Java zealots, is release the killer phone OS, one which can run next-gen Linux GUI and JavaFX applications side by side.

Both are not even mutually exclusive: the current incarnation of JavaFX could become the low-end, with the one with Linux GTK bindings becoming the high-end for more powerful phones.

If we elaborate. Palm Inc. lost its momentum in the last few years after going back and forth and deciding to develop its own Linux-based OS instead of using Access/PalmSource's own ALP.

If anyone wants to outsell Apple and stop the fragmentation in the Linux market, it's time for something better than a "new" mobile Linux OS. If an open OS from Sun is able to run Java, Linux - and optionally PalmOS applications if a vendor wants it by packing the ALP legacy VM - all side by side, as ALP does, and if it's coupled with Sun's marketing efforts, it would be a killer platform.

Not to mention also that it would be the best upgrade path for Palm OS ISVs, Treo users, and Palm itself.

Another - less risky - option, instead of generating a "FrankenOS", would be to just continue offering both ALP - renamed of course - and JavaFX, but both under the Sun label. In this case, I'd suggest naming both under the "Sun Mobile OS" or "Java Mobile OS" moniker. Hey, I even have a name for the ALP product from Sun: "Java Mobile Linux". So vendors could choose between the pure-Java version - JavaFX - or the one that does it all, Java + Linux.

To make the difference disappear to the end user, the current friendly JavaFX layer could be backported to run on top of ALP, so Linux wins, Java wins, only Microsoft loses. In that case, both "pure" JavaFX and the fatter "on top of ALP " version would share the same look and feel. One could run GUI Linux apps, the other - JavaFX - won't, but both would come from Sun, packaged as "lightweight" and "full blown" versions.

Don't get me wrong: Sun has the right idea in developing and promoting its own Java-OS in JavaFX - an evolution of Savaje OS which it bought from SavaJe Technologies - but it's also late to the party, and they risk having Linux OS based smartphones stealing the momentum.

Many hardware vendors, from Motorola to Nokia have been developing for Linux a long time. So when all the Linux mobile applications start to appear, Sun's Java-Phone OS JavaFX will suddenly find itself short of apps: developers coding for mobile Linux won't find a pure-Java OS attractive, and many customers will ignore JavaFX phones. That is unless Sun has its own Linux mobile OS as well able to run the Mobile Linux apps. And ALP is one which should be getting ready to rock by now.

So, McNealy, Schwartz: why not play all games, embrace Linux and Java, and promote both as a two-pronged assault on Windows Mobile?. That would surely be the ultimate nail in the coffin for WinMob. What would it take Sun to offer this?. I repeat my blunt proposal: Buy Access Co. Ltd, the makers of ALP.

Access Co. Ltd. is a huge company in Japan, they have great technology, but it's also apparent they don't have an effective strategy when it comes to marketing. Their ALP Linux based platform looks promising, it's got already a Java VM integrated, and it can run native Linux applications, and has the ability to run PalmOS applications under emulation. So if Sun managed to buy Access they would win:

• Instant access to the huge Asian marketplace
• A Linux-based OS foundation that they could merge over time with JavaFX. But that's not necessary, they could also let hardware vendors choose one or the other, JavaFX or the renamed ALP- always winning the brand name recognition -and taking the profits all the way to the bank- as both would be Sun's products.
• If eventually the software is merged: the Ultimate Mobile OS, capable of running Java, Linux, -and if requested- legacy PalmOS applications if the handset vendor wishes to include the VM emulator (I'm thinking here about Palm Inc.)

What is important is that in this scenario Sun only wins, and Microsoft only loses. Java already runs in millions of phones, from low-end to high-end. Java based mobile games are already almost an industry standard. So what's the hurdle for Java to become the de-facto standard? Here's the answer: Linux. And as Microsoft has realized by now, Linux is unstoppable.

At the risk of over-repeating myself: so instead of having Java OS fight Linux for the developers' mindset, why not buy Access and please both the java purists and the Linux camp?.

Ryan Paul said over here: "JavaFX Mobile seems technologically compelling, but there are many factors that will limit adoption potential. New Linux-based open-source mobile platforms are emerging at a very rapid pace and Sun will have to compete against major open-source projects, some of which are backed by large coalitions of companies."

Mobile Linux fragmentation makes Microsoft happy
Sun is a company, and as a company its first duty is to make money. Sun is also an open company, they have probably contributed more proprietary code to the open source camp than any other, starting with StarOffice becoming OpenOffice.org. They shouldn't care if a mobile OS foundation is Linux or JavaFX, they should care that the phones are able to run Java Mobile Edition, and that the combined market share of both outsell proprietary ones like WinMob.

The current scenario with different vendors all implementing their own different Linux builds surely has the Vole laughing all the way to the bank. Look at the big picture: Palm developing its own Linux based OS from scratch, Access pushing its own ALP Linux. Motorola's A1200 runs the firm's own Linux. The "Not Invented Here" syndrome at work!. Then there's Symbian OS. If you put yourself in the shoes of a hardware manufacturer, one thing is for certain " it's safe to have one offering with Windows Mobile... and for the rest, let's pick one of the available Linux choices". Most mobile manufacturers simply cannot afford to have different models running JavaFX, ALP, Palm's Linux OS, Symbian, or another mobile OS whose name might escape my memory right now.

Conclusions
I haven't asked any financial experts on the feasibility of this buyout. But I know that as of today Sun has a market cap of 21.76 billion and the one for Access Co. Ltd is a mere 1.6 billion. Not a bad price to have one of the most promising Linux mobile platforms. Probably I'm just a scribbler who is daydreaming. But from a technology and market share point of view, I think that Sun having access to a mobile Linux platform that excels at running Java in addition to the bare-metal JavaFX would certainly make sense.

Let me be 100% clear: I'm not saying that Sun's Savaje based OS aka "JavaFX Mobile Platform" isn't good in its current incarnation, or that Access' own ALP all by itself doesn't have a chance of success, I'm saying that by pursuing a two-pronged strategy of pushing Linux and JavaFX at the same time, and considering this will be done by a company as open as Sun, the chances of open standards -including Java and Linux- winning over the proprietary WinMob offering from the Vole increase exponentially. And Sun would win in the end no matter what mobile platform - Linux or Java - has the largest market share.

Let's suppose for a moment that Sun does this. They instantly become one heavyweight player in the mobile OS space, not just a "me too" player as is the case today with JavaFX. Given Sun's tradition, it also wouldn't surprise me if they open sourced the ALP foundation, leaving JavaFX as something to license to handset vendors.

So, Dear Jonathan Schwartz -or Scott McNealy if you're reading- what do you think?. Can JavaFX take on Mobile Linux all by itself? It won't be an admission of defeat for JavaFX if you embrace mobile Linux, but rather a wise move that ensures Java's long-term survival and relevance in the mobile space.

Why can't Sun offer the best of both worlds, Linux and Java?. INQuiring minds want to know. µ

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